Contact
News and Publications Flash boursier

07/10/2024

Flash boursier

Key data

 USD/CHFEUR/CHFSMIEURO STOXX 50DAX 30CAC 40FTSE 100S&P 500NASDAQNIKKEIMSCI Emerging Markets
Latest0,84480,940511 137,794 827,6316 751,647 449,448 278,445 633,0917 592,1333 464,171 086,02
Trend
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
YTD1,58%0,13%7,72%2,64%14,14%1,23%0,03%2,09%3,10%15,45%8,59%

(values from the Friday preceding publication)

 

Tensions flare up again

The worsening in the geopolitical unrest blighting the Middle East, accompanied by an upswing in oil prices, dampened the underlying trend in equity markets last week.

US economic activity slowed in September, as evidenced by the S&P Global PMI, which clocked in at 47.3 after a reading of 47.9 in August. In particular, new orders fell at the fastest rate since June 2023, amid soft demand and haze on the political front.

Manufacturing activity was stable, with the ISM manufacturing index at 47.2 – the same level as in August. Important to note, the prices paid component fell sharply, dropping to 48.3 from 54 in August. Activity in the services sector remained particularly robust, with ISM services reported at 54.9 compared with the consensus forecast of 51.7.

Turning our attention to jobs, the Department of Labour reported 225,000 initial jobless claims in the week beginning 23 September, which was 6,000 more than in the previous week (219,000).

In the US, 254,000 non-farm jobs were added in September, well above market expectations of 140,000. Non-farm payrolls for the previous two months were also revised – from 89,000 to 144,000 in July and from 142,000 to 159,000 in August, equating to an upward revision of 72,000 for the two months combined. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, compared with the 4.2% consensus forecast.

These latest macroeconomic data further attest to the resilience of the US economy and confirm the prospect of a soft landing.

This news led the US 10-year yield back to 4.00%. The yield on its German counterpart, the Bund, similarly recovered to 2.25%.

In the Eurozone, inflation fell below 2% in September, increasing the chances that the ECB will cut interest rates again at the end of the month. In detail, the harmonised consumer price index (HCPI) decelerated to 1.8% year-on-year last month, after a reading of 2.2% in August.

Economic activity remained sluggish in September, but the slowdown was less abrupt than expected. The composite PMI dipped to 49.6 in September, after 51.0 in August. The services PMI similarly fell less than expected, clocking in at 51.4 in September compared with the consensus forecast of 50.5.

The S&P 500 edged up by 0.22% last week, while the Nasdaq gained a minor 0.10%. The Stoxx Europe 600 gave up 1.80%.

 

Download the Flash boursier (pdf)

 

This document is provided for your information only. It has been compiledfrom information collected from sources believed to be reliable and up to date, with no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.By their very nature, markets and financial products are subject to the risk of substantial losses which may be incompatible with your risk tolerance.Any past performance that may be reflected in this documentis not a reliable indicator of future results.Nothing contained in this document should be construed as professional or investment advice. This document is not an offer to you to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or any other financial product of any nature, and the Bank assumes no liability whatsoever in respect of this document.The Bank reserves the right, where necessary, to depart from the opinions expressed in this document, particularly in connection with the management of its clients’ mandates and the management of certain collective investments.The Bank is a Swiss bank subject to regulation and supervision by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).It is not authorised or supervised by any foreign regulator.Consequently, the publication of this document outside Switzerland, and the sale of certain products to investors resident or domiciled outside Switzerland may be subject to restrictions or prohibitions under foreign law.It is your responsibility to seek information regarding your status in this respect and to comply with all applicable laws and regulations.We strongly advise you to seek independentlegal and financial advice from qualified professional advisers before taking any decision based on the contents of this publication.