Fed cuts rates but retains watchful eye

Last week the Fed shifted monetary policy again, the ECB continued to exercise patience, and the US and China called a temporary truce in their trade spat.

Powell tempers expectations

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Last week the Fed cut its policy rate by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75-4.0%, and did so by ten votes to two – while also announcing the end of quantitative tightening. This move reflects a desire to avoid an excessive tightening in borrowing conditions just as hiring and consumer spending are showing signs of fatigue.

However, Powell poured cold water on hopes of a rapid easing cycle, saying another cut in December was not guaranteed and warning that stagflation risks persisted. His remarks hoisted the 10-year Treasury yield back up to 4.11% after it had briefly dipped below 4%. Traders trimmed the probability of a further cut in December from 90% to 70%.

Corporate results were a mixed bag. Alphabet posted results showing a solid quarter, while Microsoft and Meta disappointed on margins that were weighed down by hefty AI investments. Nvidia briefly became the first corporate entity to surpass a USD 5 trillion market capitalisation.

The ECB, meanwhile, left its policy rate unchanged at 2% for a third consecutive meeting, judging that inflation pressures were contained but that the outlook was still uncertain. On the macro front, France surprised with 0.5% growth in Q3, driven by exports, while Germany stagnated, narrowly avoiding recession. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI stayed below the 50 mark, confirming the slowdown.

US-China trade truce

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China’s manufacturing PMI slipped back to 49.7, signalling a contraction in economic activity, while property sales continued to fall. Even so, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping delivered a partial truce. Washington halved tariffs on fentanyl and helped kick-start Chinese purchases of soybeans, while Beijing suspended its restrictions on rare-earth exports for one year and gained access to some types of Nvidia chip. The limited deal briefly lifted market sentiment, though doubts linger over China’s underlying growth trajectory.

Last week the S&P 500 gained 0.71% and Nasdaq 1.97%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 edged down 0.67% while the SMI tumbled by 2.65%.

Upcoming November PMIs and the US jobs report will be closely watched to gauge the likely pace of the Fed’s easing exercise.