Tariff blitz
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Tariff blitz

Flash boursier from 14.07.2025

Key data

 

USD/CHF

EUR/CHF

SMI

EURO STOXX

50

DAX 30

CAC 40

FTSE 100

S&P 500

NASDAQ

NIKKEI

MSCI Emerging Markets

Latest

0.80

0.93

11'937.42

5'383.48

24'255.31

7'829.29

8'941.12

6'259.75

20'585.53

39'569.68

1'229.13

Trend

3

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

1

YTD

-12.22%

-0.89%

2.90%

9.96%

21.85%

6.08%

9.40%

6.43%

6.60%

-0.81%

14.29%

(values from the Friday preceding publication)

 

Last week ended on a gloomy note for financial markets, dragged down by the latest salvo from the Trump administration in the trade war. Investors were initially cheered by the signs of better relations on the negotiating front. But the successive pronouncements by the president have revived fears of a broad lurch in a more protectionist direction.

Trade war worsens

Donald Trump took his trade strategy to a new level last week, brandishing the threat of higher tariffs with increasing frequency. He announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports from 1 August. This was followed by a series of letters addressed to 14 countries, warning of duties of as much as 40%. In the firing line are Laos (40%), Cambodia and Thailand (36%), and Bangladesh (35%). Japan, South Korea and South Africa are facing a 25-30% tax on their exports.

The EU initially had a let-off but now faces a 30% tariff on its goods, as does Mexico. Total rates of 15-20% have been floated for other trading partners, as opposed to the 10% suggested to date. At the same time, copper and pharma imports into the US are due to incur duties ranging from 50% to 200% in the long run.

These increased tensions have dashed all hope of a tariff hiatus. Donald Trump has affirmed that the 1 August cut-off date will be final and binding.

The EU is pushing to keep the 10% duty on its exports while negotiating carve-outs for key industries. But the mood of uncertainty is growing, and this is weighing on business sentiment. Signals on the macroeconomic front are mixed. Retail sales in the Eurozone declined in May, but Germany’s industrial production bounced back by 1.2% in the same month while inflation was under control at 2%. In France, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in June was up 0.4% month-on-month, representing a modest uptick, while the 12-month inflation rate was 0.9%.

Switzerland seems to be heading for a steady tariff arrangement with the US, which is especially important for its pharmaceuticals industry, as a result of an agreement being negotiated.

Differing Fed viewpoints

Over in the US, Fed minutes reveal a rift in the FOMC. Rate cuts are planned for this year, but no consensus has emerged to take action as early as this month. The resilience of the labour market and the latest unrest on the trade front could prompt the Fed to continue biding its time. Initial jobless claims even came in below expectations, endorsing the prospect of a policy hold in the short term.

In China, consumer prices edged up in June, with inflation reaching 0.1% after several months of decline. While this is an encouraging sign, the upturn remains fragile, as deflation has been entrenched and domestic demand subdued for some time.

Market volatility is set to remain elevated as the 1 August deadline approaches and corporate earnings season gets going. Last week the S&P 500 gave up 0.31%, Nasdaq 0.38% and the SMI 0.29%. The Stoxx Europe 600 put on 1.15%.

 

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This document is provided for your information only. It has been compiledfrom information collected from sources believed to be reliable and up to date, with no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.By their very nature, markets and financial products are subject to the risk of substantial losses which may be incompatible with your risk tolerance.Any past performance that may be reflected in this documentis not a reliable indicator of future results.Nothing contained in this document should be construed as professional or investment advice. This document is not an offer to you to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or any other financial product of any nature, and the Bank assumes no liability whatsoever in respect of this document.The Bank reserves the right, where necessary, to depart from the opinions expressed in this document, particularly in connection with the management of its clients’ mandates and the management of certain collective investments.The Bank is a Swiss bank subject to regulation and supervision by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).It is not authorised or supervised by any foreign regulator.Consequently, the publication of this document outside Switzerland, and the sale of certain products to investors resident or domiciled outside Switzerland may be subject to restrictions or prohibitions under foreign law.It is your responsibility to seek information regarding your status in this respect and to comply with all applicable laws and regulations.We strongly advise you to seek independentlegal and financial advice from qualified professional advisers before taking any decision based on the contents of this publication.

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