Flash boursier

Key data


(values from the Friday preceding publication)


Doubts worsening

The second quarter of the year began with a wave of profit-taking hitting equities, triggered by better-than-expected macroeconomic data which dented the market’s recent trend. In addition, as the security situation worsens in the Middle East, oil prices have surged northwards. Gold is also up significantly.

Chair Powell again stated last week that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, although loosening is still on the agenda. This news cast doubt on the chances of a rate cut as early as June, fostering some tensions on the bond market.

Correspondingly, the US 10-year yield retraced upwards of 4.40% and its German counterpart broke above 2.40%, especially after the US economy showed continued signs of strength – particularly in the labour market. In March, 303,000 non-farm jobs were added in the economy, busting past the forecast for 235,000. The unemployment rate also dipped to 3.8%. The Department of Labour reported 221,000 initial jobless claims in the week beginning 25 March, which was below expectations.

In contrast, the service sector slowed more sharply than forecast in March, with the ISM services index dropping to 51.4 last month from 52.6 in February.

In Europe, the ECB is even more likely to start cutting rates following the sharper-than-expected fall in March inflation. The consumer price index rose by just 2.4% in March, compared with 2.6% in February and 2.8% in January, bringing inflation ever closer to the ECB’s official target.

Eurozone economic activity grew last month for the first time since May 2023, but the recovery was uneven. Services did better than expected, offsetting a sharper slowdown in manufacturing.

The composite PMI covering services and manufacturing sectors advanced to 50.3 in March, up from 49.2 in February. The ‘new orders’ component resumed growing after an eight-month slump. Rising wages are likely to support this trend over the coming months.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 ended the week down by 0.95%, Nasdaq by 0.80% and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 1.19%.

This week, the ECB’s rate decision will be closely watched, while the initial batch of quarterly earnings releases will provide an indication about global economic activity.


Download the Flash boursier (pdf)


This document is provided for your information only. It has been compiledfrom information collected from sources believed to be reliable and up to date, with no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness.By their very nature, markets and financial products are subject to the risk of substantial losses which may be incompatible with your risk tolerance.Any past performance that may be reflected in this documentis not a reliable indicator of future results.Nothing contained in this document should be construed as professional or investment advice. This document is not an offer to you to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or any other financial product of any nature, and the Bank assumes no liability whatsoever in respect of this document.The Bank reserves the right, where necessary, to depart from the opinions expressed in this document, particularly in connection with the management of its clients’ mandates and the management of certain collective investments.The Bank is a Swiss bank subject to regulation and supervision by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).It is not authorised or supervised by any foreign regulator.Consequently, the publication of this document outside Switzerland, and the sale of certain products to investors resident or domiciled outside Switzerland may be subject to restrictions or prohibitions under foreign law.It is your responsibility to seek information regarding your status in this respect and to comply with all applicable laws and regulations.We strongly advise you to seek independentlegal and financial advice from qualified professional advisers before taking any decision based on the contents of this publication.